¡Vaya, vaya, vaya!

We tipped up the Spanish at the start of the tournament at 6/1. Hope some of you are on that one!

And if you’re not, tonight’s a chance make up for it, because there isn’t a cat’s chance in hell that Argentina are going to be gifted yet another match. We think…

Just as well no Argentinian President has seen a World Cup game live in 36 years. A weird superstition: Javier Milei will be watching from Buenos Aires this evening!

19th July 2026

Real goals (rG) are overrated. Expected goals (xG) are where it’s at!

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🤯 Alexis Mac Allister has never lost at game at the World Cup (W11, D2)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England’s 6-4 win over France was the 5th highest-scoring game in World Cup history, and the first to see two sides score 4+ since 1962.

🇦🇷 Leo Messi completed 9 dribbles against England, one more than Cristiano Ronaldo has managed in his last four World Cups combined.

📈 If you’d had £100 on every match to finish as a draw this World Cup, you’d be £2,098 in profit.

🥇 13 of the past 14 World Cup and Euro Finals have been won by the side that played first. Advantage Spain.

🤝 Spain and Argentina have only ever met once in the World Cup history, back in 1966. An Argentina 2-1 win.

⚽️ Mikel Oyarzabal just needs one more goal to equal the most ever scored by a Spaniard (5) at a World Cup.

❌ None of the last three holders to reach the World Cup final won.

6 points | Spain to win the World Cup ☞ 4/6
💭 This is our biggest bet of the tournament.

The Spanish have been comfortably the best side in the tournament, conceding just eight shots on target and only one goal against. If it weren’t for last night’s basketball match, they’d also have the highest ‘xG for’ per 90. Bar an early blip agains Cape Verde (which Yamal didn’t start), they have had it their way in every game, and England can find solace that they don’t have to lose another Final to the Iberians.

That honour will be bestowed upon Argentina, perhaps the luckiest - or pluckiest - side to reach the Final this millennium. Bar some Messi freakery, which is always possible, this side will be no match for the Spanish. They’ve been made to look mediocre for large parts of the game against Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland. Their defence is a worry, too. Romero and Martinez are highly-charged, both receiving yellows in the semis, and you can see them being pushed and pulled out of position while trying to support their full-backs against Yamal and Baena.

Spain should dominate possession, and squeeze Messi when rarely out of possession. Can see there being plenty of fouls to disrupt the play, but if Rodri gets into the game early, the Argentinians shouldn’t get close enough to cause too much damage to the Spanish ankles.

The prices are tighter than they should be given it’s a World Cup Final, but logic dictates that the better team, by a long way, is Spain. So the value is there.

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📺 TONIGHT
20:00—SPAIN vs ARGENTINA | BBC One & ITV 1