🚩 Linesman or lines man?

IN-THE-INBOX: A 2-MIN READ

A quiet international break…

Pep Guardiola signed a 1-year contract extension, Man United have a new manager and referee David Coote has given a new meaning to the word linesman. 😉

👉 This Saturday it’s all about Man City vs Spurs – can Pep avoid a FIFTH defeat in a row?

(P.S. You can join our Premium Club to get tips on the Chelsea and City games. It’s just £3.99 a month)

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🗓️ 22nd November 2024

1. Wissa it quietly 🤫

2. An Opta-mystic title shout 🏆

3. Man City & Chelsea tips ✍️

THE BIG FACTS

Pub Ammo

🤕 Mo Salah has now received 168 fouls since 2018 – just overtaking the 167 Jack Grealish won in 2019/20 alone.

🧤 Spurs haven’t gone long (over 40m) on a single goal kick this season.

🐝 Yoane Wissa has 7 more non-penalty goals in his Premier League career than Ivan Toney, in 1,330 minutes less.

🦡 Fulham haven’t been beaten on xG since the opening day of the season.

🇳🇴 Martin Ødegaard has created the most chances from open play (62) in 2024, despite missing seven games this season.

🤨 Garnacho has more G/A this season* than Dembele, Mbappe and Olise, and is level with Saka (11).

*In all comps. He’s miles behind in the League.

THE BIG TIPS

Blue Saturday

THE BIG DEAL

Fines mean sweet FA

Referee David Coote apparently organised a Travelodge “party” minutes before kick-off in the Spurs vs Man City game.

And yet, somehow, that isn’t the most jaw-dropping referee-related story to come out of this absolute PGMOL of a season…

So here goes…

If a Premier League footballer, for instance Declan Rice, were to delay the restart and receive a yellow card, he would be fined just £10 by the FA.

We’ve done some maths. Rice is paid ~£240,000 a week, or £23 a minute.

In the time it takes for him to commit the foul and receive the card, he has made that tenner back.

(P.S. If a player were to be carded for spitting, it’d be a mouth-watering £55.)

THE BIG OPINION

An Opta-mystic view

You’d be forgiven for thinking it’s all over.

Liverpool are five points clear of Man City, and a further nine of Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea and Forest.

For a start, no team has ever won the title after being nine points behind at this stage of the season (11 games).

So that could rule out the chasing quartet.

Then there’s City – with Pep’s contract extension potentially an admission that he doesn’t believe his side will come back this season. Next season the final, final target? À la Fergie.

With all that in mind, surely Liverpool are already massively odds-on..?

Well no.

Liverpool: 21/20 (49% chance)
Man City: 2/1 (33.3%)
Arsenal: 4/1 (20%)

Meanwhile Opta have got their chances at:

Liverpool: 60.3%
Man City: 34.3%
Arsenal: 5%

So what goes into the Opta algorithm? Who knows… but the betting market is a wise guide.

Man City appear to be priced accordingly. We’ve seen them rattle off 10 wins on the trot so many times.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have already faced Villa, Spurs, Chelsea, City and Newcastle away – and surely won’t see another red card for a while?

Then there’s Liverpool, who have had the 7th easiest fixtures so far and face City, Newcastle and Everton in their next four games.

Navigate that with a five point gap, and they’ll be odds-on.

BIG SIX ENERGY

Leader of the Wolfpack

If you’ve got a FPL team and haven’t got a clue what to do – there can be no more obvious selection than Matheus Cunha…

Wolves have had a shocker of a season but if you look closely, they’ve had comfortably the hardest start (see below).

To the eye, they’re miles better than the results and Cunha has started to hit his stride, with five goals and two assists in an underperforming team.

He’s £6.8m and Wolves have the easiest next six games in the League (based on average league position).

THE BIG QUOTE

Hollow threat

THE SOFA SCHEDULE

Five losses for City?

S A T
12:30 Leicester vs Chelsea TNT Sports
17:30 Man City vs Spurs Sky Sports

S U N
14:00 Southampton vs Liverpool Sky Sports
16:30 Ipswich vs Man United Sky Sports

M O N
14:00 Newcastle vs West Ham Sky Sports

If you want to receive all the tips AND regular Champions League editions, you can upgrade to The Big Six Club for just £3.99 a month.

That’s an afternoon latte you don’t need. 😉

All the best,
The Big Six