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🐣 Newcastle are risen
Aston Villa vs Newcastle | Spurs vs Forest
IN-THE-INBOX: 2-MINS
First ‘hot take’ of the newsletter: Newcastle are a SHOUT for a 2nd-place finish.
They’re the only side in the top six without a cup competition and are the in-form team in the league, just four points off a disinterested Arsenal side.
Can Newcastle make it six wins on the bounce and become the first side to win at Villa Park since August 2024?
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🗓️ Friday 17th April 2025
Mark Guehi’s unfortunate double 😫
How competitive is the PL? 🧠
FOUR big tips 💰
THE BIG FACTS
Pub Ammo
🤦🏽♂️ Marc Guehi is just the second player in Premier League history to score an own goal against the same team both home and away (vs Newcastle) in a single season.
📊 Crystal Palace accumulated more xG (2.22) than Newcastle (1.48) on Wednesday, despite losing 5-0.
📍 None of the London Premier League clubs won last weekend (D3, L4).
☃️ Cole Palmer hasn’t scored in his last 1,202 minutes of football. Over 20 hours.
🦓 Since December, only Mo Salah (23) and Alexander Isak (19) have more Premier League goal involvements than Jacob Murphy (17).
🤤 Miles Lewis-Skelly is the only player who hasn’t been dribbled past once in the Premier League (min. 15 appearances).
THE BIG TIPS
Easter cards
THE BIG OPINION
Crunching some numbers
“It’s the most competitive league in Europe. It’s the most competitive season ever.”
Every year, we have the same conversations. Usually as a means of putting down the eventual winners.
So, we’ve analysed the data using two key metrics: Points Spread (gap between 1st-20th) and Draw Rate (percentage of draws).
The wider the points spread + the more draws = the more competitive the season.
We’ve then weighted it using an Index (see below).
This table ranks the most competitive seasons in the Premier League (1st being most) in the last 10 seasons based on Points Spread and Draw Rate.
| Rank | Season | Draw Rate | Points Spread | Index | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20–21 | 27.1% | 63 | 90.3 | Man City |
| 2 | 15–16 | 28.4% | 64 | 86.7 | Leicester |
| 3 | 24–25* | 23.5% | 66 | 79.4 | Liverpool* |
| 4 | 16–17 | 22.6% | 69 | 71.8 | Chelsea |
| 5 | 22–23 | 21.3% | 64 | 67.3 | Man City |
| 6 | 17–18 | 20.5% | 69 | 63.5 | Man City |
| 7 | 21–22 | 21.3% | 71 | 61.3 | Man City |
| 8 | 23–24 | 22.4% | 75 | 57.4 | Man City |
| 9 | 19–20 | 24.0% | 78 | 57.4 | Liverpool |
| 10 | 18–19 | 18.7% | 82 | 40.8 | Man City |
So there you have it…
If Liverpool gain another 10-12 points on Southampton, which is highly likely, this season will rank as one of the least competitive seasons.
Hardly a surprise given the winner and relegation teams are done and dusted.
But more importantly. 👇
Where does the Premier League as a whole rank among the Big Five European Leagues?
Using the same metrics, the Prem is 4th!
It might be the best… but it ISN’T the most competitive. Apparently the Bundesliga is – despite Bayern Munich’s stranglehold. 🤷♂️
To be honest, it’s all subjective really. You could just argue the League with the most winners is the most competitive (Premier League & Serie A with 4 apiece).
But hopefully you can use this table below to settle some arguments.
This table ranks the five biggest leagues’ competitiveness, based on average Points Spread and Draw Rate over the last 10 seasons.
| Rank | League | Avg Points Spread | Avg Draw Rate | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bundesliga | 55.2 | 24.1% | 79.1 |
| 2 | Ligue 1 | 56.3 | 20.3% | 74.5 |
| 3 | Serie A | 60.7 | 19.9% | 70.1 |
| 4 | Premier League | 68.3 | 23.1% | 66.5 |
| 5 | La Liga | 70.4 | 21.5% | 63.9 |
🤯 If only we’d included The Championship, where every team can still either be relegated or promoted, or both, with four games to go!!!
THE BIG FANTASY
Keep Isak and hit the rest
Our team is now ~160,000th, in the top 2% of all teams.
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If you’ve managed to keep your FREE HIT – and not accidentally play it in November instead of a Wildcard 🙈 – then you’re in luck this weekend.
Arsenal, Villa, Palace and City all have Double Gameweeks – so you could stack your team with three players from each squad.
Crystal Palace and a disinterested Arsenal play each other in this period, so we’d weight heavily towards Man City and Aston Villa’s players and keep hold of Isak and Salah.
Have fun!
THE BIG QUOTE
“It's not a matter of mathematically it [relegation this weekend] being done or not.”
THE SOFA SCHEDULE
SATURDAY
17:30 Aston Villa vs Newcastle Sky Sports
SUNDAY
14:00 Ipswich vs Arsenal Sky Sports
16:30 Leicester vs Liverpool Sky Sports
MONDAY
20:00 Spurs vs Forest Sky Sports
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All the best,
The Big Six
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